BALTIMORE, MD - JULY 11: Chris Davis #19 of the Baltimore Orioles hits a solo home run in the second inning against the Texas Rangers on July 11, 2013 at Orioles Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)
Chris Davis, the first baseman of the Baltimore Orioles, enters the All Star Break with epic statistics - 37 home runs, 27 doubles, 93 runs batted in. Those would be great numbers for an entire season. Davis' explosion has spawned reflections on the trade that brought him from Texas to Baltimore. The trade sent Davis and starting pitcher Tommy Hunter to Baltimore for middle reliever (at the time) Koji Uehara. It now seems crazy, but even at the time, I shook my head in bewilderment.
I like Daniels. Nolan Ryan has been the face of the franchise and loved by Texans while also making valuable contributions, but it is Daniels who has transformed the club's roster into a formidable force. This season, as much or more than their two trips to the World Series, speaks to his development of the organization and player talent as nearly the entire starting staff has spent time on the disabled list with the Rangers continuing as one of the best teams in baseball.
Rather than a rant on Daniels, the Davis trade highlights how even skilled managers are not immune from bone-headed decisions. An article by Ken Rosenthal piece tries to provide reasons, but really serves as more of merely a chronic2le of the sequence of events but never really asks the critical questions.
It's easy to see Davis as a supernova, but that view is wrong. Davis hit 38 homers and 38 doubles as a 22-23 year old in his first two seasons while getting roughly one full season's worth of at bats. At the AA and AAA levels, he produced combined on base and slugging percentages over 1.0 for his career. Arguably the best power hitter in the minors. In spite of these numbers, the Rangers began giving up on him due to a large number of strikeouts and a low average. They gave him less than 200 at bats in his last season and a half in Texas and practically shopped him around like a "player to be named later." Over 2012 and 2013 with the Orioles, he has hit 70 homers and 47 doubles. The fact that he is an excellent fielder is just gravy.
I would love to ask Daniels two critical questions about the thinking at the time. How could a player, particularly such a young player, fall in value to them so much? Daniels is a numbers-analytics guy. He has to know how rare Davis' power numbers were at such a young age. The other question is how could player with such prospective.
I can only guess at the true underlying pressures borrowed from common managerial problems in other setting.
1. Looking at the Bad, Not the Good. Earl Weaver, ironically an iconic manager of the Orioles, like to say he focused on what players could do, not what they couldn't. It's easy to fixate on what a young player isn't doing rather than what he is doing. A GM could search far and wide and not find a young player with Davis' power.
2. Short-Termism: By 2010 and 2011, the Rangers had begun to focus on not only making the playoffs but building a team that could contend once there. They traded another top first base prospect, Justin Smoak, to obtain a Cliff Lee, who would become a free agent. Given Lee's ability (and ultimate contribution) along with the chance of resigning him, one could make sense of that move. The Davis-Hunter trade for Uehara is that kind of short term fixation taken to a ridiculous extreme both in terms of what you are giving up and what you are getting. Davis and Hunter for Lee would have been silly. Davis and Hunter for Uehara only makes sense in decision context that has become totally disconnected from a broader focus, which can be gleaned from Rosenthal's discussion. As part of this, I wonder what the real internal politics were on this. Has Daniels taken the heat for what a decision that really lay with someone else.